Nigeria has been engaging in bilateral romance with China and the Asian country trade relationship with Nigeria. Whether the bilateral relationship is mutually beneficial is a case to study; but a question ringing louder for someone to put forward is: “What has Nigeria been learning from China when it comes to economic growth and development?”
Good enough, President Tinubu paid a visit to China in 2024 and raised the idea of better economic working relationships between the two countries.
It is safe to ask that beside rhetoric, what is it that is working well in China that Nigeria has seen to borrow a leaf from? Putting aside what had happened in past decades in China, and focusing on the immediate past year, 2024, China’s economic activities picked up early (in 2024) on the backbone of stronger exports. The country’s investment in manufacturing and infrastructure as well as consumer spending on services remain very robust. For the first time, China recorded grain harvests of over 700 million tons. The country’s GDP grew by 4.8 per cent, year on year, in the first three quarters of 2024 (touching 94.97 trillion Yuan – about US$13.33 trillion). In services, the courier sector in the Asian country reached a historic milestone with its express delivery volume surpassing 150 billion parcel mark; while air passenger volume was above 700 million travelers (also for the first time). The total railway operating mileage recorded over 162,000 kilometres including over 47,000 kilometres of high-speed rail movements. In 2024, China included the term, ‘low-altitude’ economy in the government’s work report, for the first time. These are some of the “first-time-ever” milestones that China achieved in 2024, as the year closed. The multiplier effects of the twin-policy President Tinubu launched his presidency with in May 2023 continued throughout 2024.
The consequences of the fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange market unification as well as FX floating) kept unleashing growing inflation rates (with CBN only reacting with demand-pulled mechanisms to treat a glaring costs-push inflation). That the economy experienced increasing costs of doing business with corresponding astronomical increases in costs of goods and services, destruction of people’s disposable incomes and total reduction of purchasing powers of Nigerians, not a few millions had been added to the 133 million multi-dimensionally poor Nigerians that NBS reported in 2022. If 63 per cent (133 million) of the people living in Nigeria as at 2022 were officially reported to be multi-dimensionally poor, a period when the year ended with exchange rate of N448 to a dollar and an average petrol price was N172 per litre, one should imagine how many Nigerians who were barely surviving in 2022 through first half 2023 that are now deep in poverty, nineteen months later, with an average foreign exchange rate of N1,550 per dollar and petrol price of N1,200 per litre.
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President Bola Tinubu had insisted that his economic reforms are the panacea that Nigeria needed to correct the ills and mismanagement of past decades; and he so much trusts his economy handlers to deliver on his renewed hope. So far this far, as the economic reforms are being carried out, the streets are not smiling at all. Everywhere is sour. This can be seen as reflecting on the NBS Report about insecurity situations and incidents that resulted in the payment of N2.2 Trillion to bandits and kidnappers. Crime is now a thriving industry in Nigeria.
It is clear to watchers of governance that a four year tenure is only thirty six months of real work. By May 2024, it would be two years of economic reforms and mid-way to the four-year tenure of the current administration. But May 2024 will also be 66.6 per cent (or twenty four months) already spent of the time President Tinubu has to show great character in reshaping the country and delivering good governance. Without mincing words, this year 2025 is the only period left for President Bola Tinubu to show or convince Nigerians that he has capacity and that he is truly qualified to lead a country like Nigeria. If this year is frittered and Nigerians are still made to be ‘hoping’, and economic conditions of Nigerians continue on same trajectory as experienced in 2024, not a few will be disappointed with the leadership style and governance capacity of Mr President who made Nigerians to believe they should see MKO Abiola’s 1993 aborted presidency in his own.
The current economic pains need immediate assuaging balms for this defining year to be written positively for President Tinubu. Or should it be written otherwise indelibly forever?
. Ola Emmanuel is a business planning consultant and founder of Leacent Incorporated Trustee, a network of entrepreneurs and group of cooperatives. He works with a team of international consultants to conceptualise and plan agribusiness and housing projects. As a certified trainer authorised to use the International Labour Organisation’s enterprise development modules, he trains entrepreneurs and organises workshops and seminars for potential and practising entrepreneurs as well as business managers and cooperatives. He also speaks and facilitates at leadership and management workshops on invitation. His book, Business Plan Made Easy: Step by Step Guide On How To Turn Your Idea To Profitable Business’ is the latest of the books authored by him. Tel: +234(0)9068602954 (call and sms), +234(0)8023257707 (WhatsApp only).
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