Without mincing words, in the heart of self-determination agitations is the perceived suppressions that a group believe it is experiencing in the hands of those they see as their suppressors. It is this perceived suppression that lead to desires of a people to demand self-rule, in their attempt to control their own lives, away from those who suppress their rights to have dignified existence.
Borrowing from history, Socialist Yugoslavia broke up as the rise of nationalism grew among the component parts. Slovenia and Croatia voted for their independence and broke away in 1991. On first of March 1992 a Bosnia held a referendum with a 99.7% ‘yes vote’, thereby declaring her independence two days later (March 3, 1992). At the end of the breaking up, five successor-states emerged. On its part and following a series of events between 1989 and 1991, the total collapse of the USSR (in 1991) still took many by surprise. From the gigantic socialist state came out 15 countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.
That the USSR and Yugoslavia broke into several countries is not the issue here but why they became dismembered, and if Nigerian leaders can learn a thing or two from the collapse. According to Srebenica.org, Yugoslavia was torn as a result of the rise in ethno-nationalism, political conflicts and Serbian’s expansionary quests. The country founded in 1943 consisted of six parts, or regions. In a period spanning 20 years (1960 to 1980), the country was something of a regional power and an economic success story until a new leader came in 1980 to take advantage of the weakening state to fan the flames of conflicts. Eventually, Yugoslavia bowed to pressure mounted by agitators and broke up.
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The USSR established in 1922 consisted 15 republics with a dominant Russia. Seventy years after the revolution that established the communist state, the Union went into decline. It was reported that severe economic problems combined with international arms struggle already overstretched the Union. Upon assuming leadership in 1985, Mikhail Gorbachev attempted to implement necessary reforms through his perestroika and glasnost policies for economic restructuring and political openness. Notwithstanding the implementation of extensive economic reforms and the introduction of limited democratic elections, not one of measures implemented by Gorbachev can be seen to be successful in arresting economic decline. The coming of Yeltsin into the scene and his demand that Russia be granted economic autonomy led to other component units’ demand and declaration to be sovereign states.
A pattern not lost to analysis in the case of Yugoslavia and USSR is that the countries were not original in structure and they never jelled into become a nation. It is about the economy and the management of the people’s resources, no more, no less. The condition of the economy always brings about peace, progress and conviviality or bring about conflicts, anarchy and agitations for self-determination or secession. According to the piece written by Fonkem Achankeng, PhD, titled ‘Self-Determination And Secessionism In Post-Colonial States: Reflections On Possible Solutions From Peace And Conflict Studies’ and published by the Nigerian Institute for International Affairs (NIIA), the question of self-determination and secessionism continues to linger, long after independence of many erstwhile colonized states; and is largely attributable to the state creation made by the colonizers on the consideration only of their economic interests without recourse to the incompatibility theory of plural states. In his words, “the agitation for secession and self-determination more often finds expression through violence and conflict. It is therefore important to understand the origins, patterns, and possible outcomes of self-determination and secessionist conflicts in a bid to develop required frameworks to address them”.
The latest agitation for self-determination emanating from the South West, and the myriads of banditry activities in other regions, to face the reality, cannot be divorced from the quest for self-determination and resource control. That is why it is possible for the bandits to rove freely among their people, collecting taxes from hapless citizens and governments using different means. Yet they are somehow ‘protected’ by the same people who are suffering from their imperiousness. Is Nigeria’s federal government learning any lesson from these regional agitations at all? May 2023, on the eve of the swearing-in of the present federal government, some members of the Yoruba Nation agitators hijacked the Amuludun FM 99.1 radio station at Moniya, Ibadan. Almost a year after, on Saturday, April 13, a group also from the same stock, attempted to take over the Oyo State Government Secretariat and House of Assembly to declare the Yoruba Nation. Who knows what next is in the offing and how soon, if such things are in the offing? Whether they were nipped or apprehended isn’t the issue for me here but the fact that whether it is in form of self-determination agitations or banditry, there is no region in Nigeria that is free again from the quest for freedom from perceived suppressions by the people. Hitherto, it has been rational calls for fiscal restructuring and resource control to which the federal government seems insulated to such calls, unmoved and unperturbed. But for how long will the federal government pretends unruffled before these myriads of ethnocentric agitations are addressed? Should true federalism, a dual sovereignty, be the way to save Nigeria from total collapse or will the present beneficiaries of the commonwealth (as dished from the centre) be blinded and blunted until it is too late, and the centre can no longer hold?
Ola Emmanuel is a business planning consultant
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