As 2015 general election approaches, the Oyo State chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party is at the crossroads. The party must carefully pick a viable gubernatorial candidate or succumb to another crushing defeat like it suffered in 2011 if it fails to get its divided and rambunctious house in order quickly.
Interestingly, a coterie of eager aspirants have thrown down the gauntlet, believing that given Senator Abiola Ajimobi, the incumbent governor’s low rating with the poor masses who have had to bear the brunt of his unprecedented brutal and elitist policies, there is no better time to knock him off the governorship pedestal.
Leading the pack in the not so open declaration of interest is the immediate past Governor of Oyo State, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, who, after several months of speculation, finally flooded the nooks and crannies of the state with his posters. Even then, Alao-Akala stopped short of being specific in what position he might be interested in for the 2015 polls, though many people believed that while the posters were meant to gauge the mood of the electorate towards his political ambition, he would rather stage a comeback to the governorship seat than attempt to become a senator.
The gubernatorial ambition of the Ogbomosho-born politician has, according to sources within his camp, not generated much enthusiasm among his core supporters who contend that he may not stand a good chance given his advanced age, unresolved ongoing court case on charges of corruption and the political tradition in Oyo State of not giving any governor, whether ex or incumbent, a second term.
The discontent among his followers probably explains why two of his staunch supporters, Alhaji Kehinde Olaosebikan and Femi Babalola, have also declared their governorship ambition. Babalola, from Fiditi, is a wealthy businessman but he carries the baggage of being a co-accused along with Alao-Akala on charges of corruption and stealing of Oyo State money. Coming from Fiditi, a small, sleepy town ensconced between Oyo and Ibadan, and of little voting consequence may also work against him.
On the other hand, Olaosebikan, a journalist and former local government chairman, is from Ibadan, the sprawling capital of Oyo State, which boasts of 11 local governments, an important factor in the politics of the state. But he does not have the financial resources to pursue his ambition and may have to depend on Alao-Akala’s political machinery and financial assistance to make any headway.
Also interested in the Oyo PDP gubernatorial ticket is Taofik Arapaja, a former deputy governor in Alao-Akala’s government. Arapaja’s posters have also been pasted in many parts of the state capital. A native of Ibadan, Arapaja’s political ambition has curiously not generated much interest among PDP stalwarts who obviously do not take his ambition seriously.
So is Hazim Gbolarumi, a protégé of the late Lamidi Adedibu, who is also a former deputy governor. Currently a law student at the University of Ibadan, Gbolarumi’s posters adorn public places in the Ibadan metropolis but lack of finance and a well oiled machinery may likely work against his ambition. It has even been said that he has declared interest only as a weapon of political relevance.
Whether the same is true of Prof. Soji Adejumo and Prof. Taoheed Adedoja is unclear. But suffice to say that their gubernatorial ambition has not generated much interest.
On the other hand, many PDP supporters take seriously the governorship ambition of Senator Teslim Folarin, though opinion are sharply divided on the viability of his aspiration and many feel that giving him the ticket will amount to throwing away the election even before voting commences. Presently, Folarin is believed to have a hold on some members of the Oyo State PDP but he is a divisive figure who elicits love and hate in equal measure within the party. Getting the party to rally around Folarin if he were to get the party’s nod, will prove rather difficult. It is certainly unlikely that Alao-Akala will easily forget how Folarin engaged in anti-party activities to derail the former’s second term bid in the 2011 governorship election. Folarin, having lost the gubernatorial ticket to Alao-Akala in 2011, collaborated openly with opposition candidate, Ajimobi, to truncate Alao-Akala’s dream.
The worst case scenario for Oyo PDP if Folarin were to get the ticket is how to explain his lacklustre eight years in the Senate without Oyo State having anything to show for it. Between 2003 and 2011, Folarin did not sponsor or get a single bill through, even when he rose to the influential position of Senate Majority Leader. And neither can Oyo State boast of a single Federal Government project that came through the influence of Folarin. It is the same case of non-challant attitude in his Oluyole Estate neighbourhood in Ibadan, where his presence has never been felt in a positive way.
Worst still is the unresolved case of murder of Lati Eleweomo hanging on his neck for which he has never truly been able to argue his innocence. A protégé of the late Adedibu, it is difficult to point at any Folarin’s positive contribution to the development of Ibadan, nay Oyo State despite his unusual good luck at having been at the highest political pedestal in the state for a while.
Unlike Folarin, Engineer Seyi Makinde, a self made billionaire is a name increasingly on many lips. Makinde whose foray into partisan politics crystallised in 2007 when he contested for a senatorial seat on the platform of the All Nigeria Peoples Party is a cerebral, kind, humble and untainted politician whose appeal base among the youths in PDP is the strongest. Unlike many politicians in Oyo State who only engage in philanthropy when they want to vie for public office, Makinde for more than a decade has been offering financial assistance across the broad spectrum of the society, irrespective of religion, gender or even party affiliation ever before he began to contemplate running for public office.
For someone whose appeal cuts across the various factions of Oyo PDP, there is no doubt that among the array of aspirants seeking Oyo PDP gubernatorial ticket, he possesses the resume, mien, financial muscle and ideas to easily beat the incumbent governor in the 2015 governorship election.
It’s probably Makinde’s good luck that his name is positively perceived among the PDP power brokers in Abuja where ultimately who gets what might be decided. Abuja, it is said, believes that Makinde’s profile fits what Oyo State PDP needs: a consensus gubernatorial candidate who can be a rallying point for all the factions.
Olajumoke Akinjide, who is a federal minister, is believed to have contributed more in empowering stalwarts of the PDP in the state and she too has pasted posters around the state signifying she intends to be an active participant in the 2015 gubernatorial race. In a largely Muslim state like Oyo, Akinjide, a female and Christian, must know that making headway will be too much of a shock to the electorate in a state which has never had a female senator or even a female deputy governor.
Added to this is that she really has not built a strong political following of her own so much so that it is fair to say that much of her aspiration hangs around her ministerial position. There is also the issue of trust for someone whose husband belongs to the All Progressives Congress, while she is angling for a top PDP ticket. Some commentators believe that based on this alone, the politics of 2015 is too sensitive to allow someone whose filial relationship is shrouded in political uncertainty to push for Oyo PDP gubernatorial ticket.
As it stands today, PDP stands an excellent chance to uproot Ajimobi if it comes up with a fresh, unstained candidate. Former governor, Senator Rasheed Ladoja of Accord Party, has no chance. Ladoja’s time is gone.
Ajimobi is adored by the minority elite and hated by the poor majority. He may have built a few roads, destroying many houses in the process, for which no compensation has been paid to date, but certainly not as many as Alao-Akala built during his tenure and Alao-Akala did not suffer the poor to build roads.
Ajimobi is concerned about making Ibadan cleaner and more eye-catching, which is all well and good, but pushing thousands of poor market women off the roads in this harsh economic clime without alternative trading posts led many to their graves.
In 2011, he gave employment to some youths on salary of N10,000 in his now defunct Yes O programme, but recently sent all of them back into the labour market without any clear reason. In a bizarre revenue drive, he began to tax poor okada riders N3,000 each, which he called registration fee, without any accruable benefits, only putting a stop to it recently when it became clear it could jeopardise his second term bid.
The governor likes to give major contracts to his friends and cronies outside the state but the net effect is that the bulk of fund that comes from federal allocation never gets to circulate within this civil service state. The value of money is mainly in its circulatory value and when the bulk of Oyo State money finds its way out of the state, what results is dryness.
Wittingly or unwittingly, Ajimobi has marginalised the poor people of Oyo State and no amount of last minute interest-free loan can heal the wound of the frustrated youths, market women and Okada riders who make up majority of Oyo voters
Agbaje, an unemployed graduate, lives in Ibadan.
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