Nigerians have suffered so much in terms of poor electricity for many years and they seem to have given up because administration after administration had messed them up consistently with promises which were never kept or met.
But one thing they sure may not want to take this time around is someone raising their hopes to dash it again.
That is the kind of promise made by the Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, on Monday, when he said the President Bola Tinubu government was set to increase electricity megawatts from 4,000 to 6,000 within the next six months to improve power supply.
The promise in a way looks bogus and suspicious. The story of 3000/35000 megawatts has been with Nigerians for a very long time. According to history, the only time that the megawatts peaked at 5,700 was about three years ago, precisely November 2021, which the minister even alluded to while discussing with his visitors. He said it when he held a meeting with the heads of power agencies and other stakeholders in the industry.
Adelabu said: “Four thousand megawatts is not acceptable and we have plans to increase the megawatts to a minimum of 6,000 to 6,500 within the next three to six months. What we are looking at is to have an agreement to ramp up to a minimum of 6,000 megawatts within the next three to six months. I know that the highest we ever generated was 5,700 megawatts about three years ago, that was specifically in November 2021. And these 5,700 megawatts were also distributed. If we could achieve 5,700 at that time, I believe we still have the infrastructure to generate between 6,000 and 6,500.”
Adelabu said that he had visited a number of generation companies and confirmed that they had the installed capacity to generate the 6,000 megawatts. According to him, a large percentage of the installed capacity is operational, but they are not available because of low or shortage in gas supply. “Once there is gas supply, we want to ramp up generation to a minimum 6,000 megawatts,” he said.
The Minister said that he received information about a couple of improvements in the sector but that is not still acceptable until there is a quantum leap in terms of stable electricity supply. Adelabu added: “We need to do what we need to do to get the power sector to the desired level. Nigerians deserve the right to ask for good governance from people that are elected to power. They deserve the right to ask for improvement in service. People cannot be paying for darkness. What they should be paying for is light. And there should be consistent improvement in supply on a daily basis. So, I also want to use the opportunity to reassure Nigerians that what we are experiencing is temporary. We are addressing the root cause of all these issues.”
The Minister said that the ministry of power and the agencies under it are working day and night to ensure that the situation is reversed within a very short time. He said the ministry and its agencies would not relent until stable power is achieved, adding that the meeting was called to address the issues in the power sector. Adelabu said that the administration of President Tinubu is committed to addressing the root cause of the issues and addressing them so that there can be consistent electricity supply to consumers.
He said: “This is the only way we can guarantee a good life for our people and increase industrialisation, employment, economic growth, and industrial development. “It is true that the Electricity Distribution Companies are in the hands of private sectors. We do not have direct control but we need to compel them to perform. They must perform. If they do not perform, all our efforts in generation and transmission are zero. I had a meeting with the Chairman of Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission on how to address DisCos performance.”
While Adelabu is talking about 6000 megawatts, South Africa’s total domestic electricity generation capacity is 58,095 megawatts from all sources. Currently coal is by far the major energy source for South Africa, comprising around 80 percent of the country’s energy mix.
Sometime last week, Minister Adelabu summoned some power distribution companies to Abuja where he warned that their operating licence could be withdrawn if they failed to improve power supply. At another time too, he said the government may not be able to sustain electricity subsidies. He said Nigerians are benefiting from the Nigerian government due to piles of debt owed gas supply companies and other service providers. Two days ago, the same minister accused power distributing companies of rejecting power generated by Generation Companies. He said he didn’t see any reason why the DisCos refused to distribute energy generated by the GenCos.
All these pronouncements are very disturbing, it points out to one thing: unpreparedness on the part of the Bola Tinubu government to find a permanent solution to power supply in Nigeria. Perhaps the government should be reminded that the energy crisis is the twin of the failure of the Nigerian government to refine fuel used domestically, but preferring fuel import for domestic use.
Of course, the refinery issue would have been mitigated if the energy crisis in Nigeria is fixed permanently. For instance, if all industries, establishments and homes are assured of constant, uninterrupted power supply, the pressure on the use of petrol and diesel would be minimal. Now that it has become the new normal for all Nigerians to own a generator with which to burn fuel 24/7, why wouldn’t they feel the pressure over petrol which they need to run their vehicles, generators, industries, in fact everything?
With the kind of pronouncements from the Minister, Nigerians may end up with the same story of poor power supply in four years time when this government would have completed its first tenure, as the case may be. The Tinubu administration may not have prepared very well to confront the problem in the power sector despite all the posturing that have been displayed so far.
Nigeria has been struggling with power distribution, limited distribution networks, limited transmission line capacity, a huge metering gap, and a fall in gas supply, despite the privatisation of the power sector which produced six generation companies and eleven DisCos. As an analyst put it: “Like a stubborn ailment that has continued to defy treatment, the Nigerian power sector, which has undergone different levels of diagnosis and treatments appears to be resistant to the harvests of interventions from the public and the private sector since Nigeria attained its independence in 1960.”
The failure of successive administrations to solve the power sector problems even with the privatisation is a big embarrassment. The reality today is that many Nigerians do not currently have access to as much power supply as they would want and when they do, it’s not reliable.
Recently, the World Bank estimated that the country would need to connect between 500,000 to 800,000 new households to electricity sources every year between then and 2030 to be able to achieve its targets of universal access to electricity for its citizens.
It is a well-known fact that the abysmal performance of the power sector has continued to shake the nation’s economy to its foundation with many organised private sector operators having to expend a substantial portion of their revenues on generators. The fate of these organisations is also sealed by the prohibitive cost of diesel over the years, thereby forcing many companies to shut down or relocate to neighbouring countries.
The small-scale industry is not spared as the fear of incurring heavy losses as a result of poor access to power has forced many ambitious business owners to perish their thoughts. The attendant loss of jobs and threat to government plummeting revenue in form of taxes is another dimension of the fallout of the power sector crisis.
The Electric Power Sector Reform Act was signed into law in March 2005, enabling private companies to participate in electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. The government unbundled the Power Holdings Company of Nigeria into 11 DisCos, six GenCos and a transmission company (TCN). The Act also created the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission as an independent regulator for the sector.
According to reports, Nigeria’s national grid has been plagued with challenges in the transmission and distribution subsectors, which has made it difficult to evacuate the available generation capacity through the grid. The Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission, based on data obtained in 2021, reported that power distribution in the year averaged 4,094.09 megawatts despite an available generation capacity of about 8,000 MW2. Relatedly, average unutilised power generation increased year-on-year to 3,008.18 Megawatts in 2021, from 1,030.80 MW in 2013, indicating an increase of 291 percent in the past eight years.
While Nigeria has found it difficult to put its house in order as far as access to power is concerned, some other African countries have been able to break the power jinx in their respective jurisdictions. This is according to Tracking SDG7, the Energy Progress Report. The source, which was updated in 2019, is a global dashboard dedicated to registering progress on energy access across Africa and elsewhere, as part of the targets for the Sustainable Development Goal 7. The dashboard is a collaborative initiative by the International Energy Agency, United Nations Statistics Division, World Bank and other partners.
One of the African countries with excellent power service delivery is Egypt. According to the report, Egypt has achieved a 100 percent national electricity access rate for both the rural and urban population and its electricity is sourced mainly from hydropower and thermal power stations, with the country advancing as a leader in the renewable energy sector.
Another example is Morocco, which has achieved a 100 percent national electricity access rate for both its rural and urban populations. Morocco represents a high potential renewable energy market, particularly regarding solar. With plans to increase the share of renewables in the energy mix to 52 percent for wind and solar by 2030, major developments are currently underway.
Next is Tunisia, which is able to cover all its domestic consumption needs. Tunisia boasts 100 percent national electricity access for both rural and urban areas. The north African country of Algeria came close, scoring 99.8 percent in terms of national electricity access; 99.6 percent in rural areas and 99.9 percent in urban areas. Gabon is another country doing well in terms of the performance of electricity. The country boasts an electricity access rate of 91.6 percent. Electricity access in rural areas stands at 27.8 percent, the urban population has an access rate of 98.6 percent.
And in neighbouring Ghana, the people have 85.9 percent access to power. Ghana’s electricity mix is dominated by hydropower energy, thermal energy and gas. Currently, the country has a national electricity access rate of 85.9 percent with 74 percent access in rural areas and 94 percent in urban zones.
Also included is South Africa with 84.4 [percent access. South Africa currently generates most of its electricity from coal, with the country’s national access to electricity rate standing at 84.4 percent: 75.3 percent for rural areas and 88.8 percent in urban areas.
Botswana is not left out with 72 percent access to electricity. Botswana mainly generates its electricity from coal, wood and petroleum, relying on coal and petroleum product imports from South Africa and other regional neighbours.
Kenya is not doing badly with 71.4 percent access. With a 71.4 percent national electricity access rate, comprising 62.7 percent for rural areas and 94 percent for urban areas, Kenya has the highest access rate in east Africa.
Another country with good performance is Senegal with about 70.4 percent access. With an estimated national electricity access rate of 70.4 percent, further detailed as 47.4 percent for rural areas and 95.2 percent for urban areas, the West African country is targeting universal access to electricity by 2025, driven by new gas-to-power developments and renewable investments.
The question being raised by industry analysts is if these fellow African countries can do it well in their jurisdictions, why is Nigeria finding it difficult to put its house in order as far as electricity access is concerned? Nigeria has struggled with poor power supply for decades, a challenge that is estimated to cost businesses about $29 billion yearly, according to the World Bank. The country has the lowest access to electricity globally, with about 92 million persons out of the country’s 200 million population lacking access to power, according to the Energy Progress Report 2022 released by Tracking SDG 7.
In a recent observation by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abass, power continues to be a significant obstacle to the country’s national development. Despite the progress made, he said the problem of inadequate power supply remains persistent and seemingly insurmountable.
Abass said: “The privatisation of the power sector was a significant step towards addressing the challenges faced by the nation in this critical area. It aimed to introduce competition, efficiency, and innovation into the sector, with the ultimate goal of providing reliable and affordable electricity to all citizens. While there have been notable improvements in certain aspects, such as increased generation capacity and reduced transmission losses. We must acknowledge that there is still much work to be done. There is no gainsaying that one of the factors that have hindered economic development in our country is epileptic electricity supply and lack of some other basic infrastructure.”
Abass added that the current estimation of energy delivery of 4,000 MegaWatt to a population of over 200 million Nigerians is grossly inadequate and falls short of efficient service and limits business opportunities, hinders investments and raises the cost of production and goods for consumers. He added: “We must delve into why privatisation has succeeded in other countries but has not yielded the same results in Nigeria. Additionally, we need to understand why smaller neighbouring countries that rely on Nigeria for electricity have stable power supply while we continue to experience frequent outages.” He said it is crucial to identify the mistakes the country has made and determine what actions need to be taken by the government to ensure the success of this sector.
Adelabu should show Nigerians that he is worth his salt. By his profile, the Minister of Power should think outside the box and perform up to expectations. Adelabu is a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria in charge of operations, having been appointed to that role by former President Goodluck Jonathan in February 2014. In May 2018, he resigned from the CBN to contest the 2019 governorship election in Oyo State.
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He had his professional training with PricewaterhouseCoopers and managed various audit and consultancy engagements for large banks and non-bank financial institutions in and outside Nigeria. He was also on secondment to the CBN for one year (in 1999) when he led the Finance team on the CBN re-engineering and corporate renewal project and later left the firm in 2000 as an Audit Manager and Senior Consultant to join First Atlantic Bank as the Financial Controller and Group Head of Risk Management and Controls. Adelabu has also held various other positions while in First Atlantic Bank, including the Chief Inspector of the Bank (2002) and Group Head of National Public Sector Business (2003).
Upon assuming his new office, Adelabu promised that the federal government will empower Nigerians through stable and accessible electricity. To achieve the feat, he said the ministry would leverage the Nigerian Electricity Act 2023 to boost power supply in the country. Nigerians want to see the Minister walk his talk.
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