I was meditating on what should be the focus of this column this week when my phone beeped. It was a call from my friend, Bola Kawojue. “Emma, are you in town? Can we see on Saturday; I want you to meet with some guys to interact.” Being a banker and very business-minded, I know Bola will not call me for anything high jink. Upon confirming my availability late Friday, we ended up meeting with about seven other people, professionals in various fields of endeavours, and we brainstormed for hours on current economic situations over bottles of water and soda. By the time we finished and I got back home, the issue to explore for this column had formed.
It was Jeffrey Sallet, a partner at Ernst & Young, that wrote in his article titled, ‘How Can A Crisis Help You Turn A Challenge Into An Opportunity’, that the interconnectedness of the modern world through trade, financial, supply and information systems has led to something of a butterfly effect. According to him, “in a complex, dynamic system that demonstrates unpredictable behaviour, one small change in the initial conditions can have a profound effect on the ultimate outcome”. He identifies four categories of crisis: hidden (lurking crises which are yet to be detected), creeping (present or suspected crises but not yet been taken seriously or addressed), sudden (crises that happen without warning and are often beyond control), and bizarre (crises emanating from least recognized causes). Summarizing his piece, Jeffrey Sallet declares that once a crisis strikes, it is crucial to access intelligence from different sources. With this intelligence, one can execute plans effectively, and be capable of gaining rapid access to information that can provide the insights to respond quickly, effectively and with integrity, which ultimately helps one to recover and emerge stronger”.
Maria Langan-Riekhof, Director, Strategic Futures Group, in her own piece which addresses how to turn challenges into opportunities, states that “out of crises can emerge new and incredible opportunities, particularly if traditional approaches and paradigms are questioned and challenged. During a crisis, incentives and motivations change, potentially leading to new cooperative behaviours and even to the creation of new systems or structures. Crises can get the collective adrenaline flowing, focusing minds to solve the problem at hand”. Maria believes that crises present opportunities and benefits. To explain this she cited the Deep Water Horizon rig that exploded and collapsed in Gulf of Mexico, which unleashed the largest single oil spill in 2010. The 87-day uncontrolled release of crude oil into the seas led to the development and capacity to install at great water depth the “Capping Stack” system. She also references the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 that plunged the affected countries into deep recessions. Though the financial crisis brought about rapid increasing unemployment, poverty, and social dislocation, it however led to new level of cooperation (even among rival-countries) in addition to other opportunities.
Nigeria is at present experiencing an economic crisis that is brought about by the sudden transmutation from social welfare system to a market forces driven, mixed economy that is not too far from pure capitalism. So the sudden change has thrown up an economic crisis – a shock and crisis in motion. And according to Maria Langan-Riekhof, “once a crisis is in motion, turning it into an opportunity often requires new ways of seeing, thinking, and responding”. Applying conventional responses (such as giving and receiving palliatives) could diminish the pain for the time being, but often it is inadequate to solve the crisis. It behoves on the people therefore to individually search out opportunities and deploy their entrepreneurial capacities.
While the government functionaries are expectedly working on solutions to the economic crises, which must be carried out very timely, individuals cannot fold their hands and become a new generation of Israelites on the journey to their own Canaan by grumbling and demanding manna that will not be possible in Nigeria’s own wilderness. Everybody must wake up and discover opportunities that the current economic crises will definitely throw up. Since January 2023’s new naira and demonetisation policy which was unleashed by the Emefiele-led CBN, and the outright removal of the fuel subsidy six months after by Mr President at his swearing-in ceremony , not a few businesses, especially those in the informal sector, had been destroyed, and the rural economy literally paralysed. With the ever-increasing costs of products and services as a result of the fuel subsidy removal as well as floating of currency at the unified foreign exchange market, and the attendant economic crises, let it be clear to many that are not yet aware that the present crisis will unleash new opportunities for wealth creation. However, the fact remains that only those who position themselves will take advantage of the opportunities.
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Economic crisis is a leveller. Businesses are currently dying at an alarming rate and millions of people are losing their sources of income. However, this pathetic situation will not remain for long. Also the players that are badly affected may not return immediately in good shape thereby yielding places to new players who are ready to seize the opportunities. Economic activities will begin to bounce back as recovery plans and actions are implemented, one after the other. It means those industries that are badly hit during the crises will be picking up and it is only those that are ready that will take advantage of the opportunities in the widely open markets.
The federal government of President Bola Tinubu has conveyed its intention to stimulate the economy for jobs creation by focusing on the green economy (agriculture), blue economy (marine and ocean resources), purple economy (the caregivers), the orange economy (creative sector), and the silver economy (digital). However, the fact is that entrepreneurs don’t wait for government. Real entrepreneurs have noses to sniff opportunities and to move on their own. We have seen this played out with what young entrepreneurs are doing already with creative and digital economies. But where are opportunities likely to come first, aftermath of the current Nigeria’s economy crisis? It doesn’t require rocket science for business practitioners and economists to understand that consumer goods and services that people cannot do without, no matter how bad the economy, are also the ones to first provide opportunities.
Ola Emmanuel is a business planning consultant