A 2024 Edo State governorship pre-election opinion poll commissioned by Caesar and Lawrence Resources – Researchers, Pollsters and Examiners – has placed Prince Clem Agba of the All Progressives Congress as the most preferred aspirant to vote for in the state’s governorship election.
The non-profit organisation revealed this in the report of its research and survey, signed by Dr. Modupe Smart.
The report, released on Thursday and signed by the Lead Consultant, said Agba was ahead among six leading candidates across party lines.
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The poll also accommodated questions via telephone for those rooting for Esan agenda in the September 21, 2024 election.
The three leading candidates who featured prominently at the top of the chart after collating responses through phone, according to the pollster, are Prince Agba, Asue Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party and Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party.
The result of the poll, which was conducted from August 14, 2023 to February 7, 2024, showed that 38 percent of respondents proposed to vote for Agba if the election was held at the time of the poll, while Ighodalo got 20 percent, and 17 percent for Akpata.
Dr. Smart said the report showed an analysis of the performances of all the aspirants in Edo State in the poll during which a total number of calls made was 270,785, while 253,927 responses were recorded.
The voters’ positive response votes made by the survey calls for seven candidates in the upcoming Edo State governorship election to be held were recorded.
The data was collated and analysed to provide insights into the electoral dynamics and candidates’ performances in the 18 Local Government Areas.
The figures showed the positive responses from registered voters to questions around the seven selected candidated in the state: Philip Shaibu (20,404), Clem Agba (95,595), Olumide Akpata (42,471), Dennis Idahosa (21,969), Asue Ighodalo (50,165) and Oserhiemen Osunbor (16,350).
Those who answered in the affirmative to the question on Esan Agenda were 6,973.
From the above figures, Agba has the highest number of positive responses in the entire state followed by Ighodalo.
“This shows that Clem Agba has the highest chances of winning the governorship election for the APC,” Smart stated.
Olumide came third with 17 percent, while Idahosa was a distant fourth with 9 percent.
Two other aspirants came behind Idahosa.
“Prince Clem Agba’s 38 percent lead at this stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 20% for Asue Ighodalo and Olumide at 17 per cent and Dennis Idahosa at 9 percent,” Dr Smart said in the statement issued on Thursday.
She added: “Undecided voters and those who preferred not to reveal their preferred candidate added up to a whopping 3% and 2%, respectively.
“The gender split of decided voters shows that 38% of women and youths have decided versus 21% of male voters.
“This result was polled from the 253,927 respondents; after which we conducted similar polls with a respondents sample size, the difference in the results was not significant.”
Geopolitical zones distribution
In Edo North Senatorial District, the poll places Agba in the lead with 72 percent, followed by Shaibu, the current Deputy Governor with 21 percent.
In Edo Central Senatorial District, Ighodalo led with 39 percent, Osunbor with 24 percent, and Agba with 21 percent.
Also, a study carried out on people who wanted the Esan agenda recorded nine percent.
In Edo South Senatorial District, Agba came tops with 34 percent, followed by Akpata with 24 percent, Ighodalo with 19 percent, Idahosa with 12 percent, Shaibu with 6 percent, and Osunbor with 4 percent.
People who responded positively that they would vote for the Esan agenda were two per cent.
In the statement, the organisation said the August 2023 to February 2024 polls were conducted because of the combination of the decided voters and those with preferred candidates.
Voters who refused to disclose their preferences are not enough to change the poll outcome if the election is held today in the state.
“Our projections, consistent with our similar projections in past years in polling and critical surveys, have pointed to the most possible conclusion that the trends are clear enough to establish the front-runners and so our subsequent polls will continue to concentrate on the leading candidates only,” the statement reads.