Nigeria yet to pass turn over test — Akhaine

A leading Human Rights Activist and Political Science Scholar, Professor Sylvester Odion Akhaine, says Nigeria, the world’s largest black democracy, is yet to pass Huntington’s two-turnover test in spite of gains in democratic transition evinced by the 26 years of unbroken civilian rule since 1999.  

He also said prevailing poverty, corruption, and disempowerment of Africans make coup d’etat a veritable option on the continent.

Presenting the 103rd inaugural lecture of the Lagos State University, Ojo, titled: “SHIFTING FOR GOOD: THE WEAPON OF EMPIRICISM IN THE DISORDER OF A THIRD WAVE OF DEMOCRACY IN AFRICA,” Akhaine  argued that this departs from progress. 

“Despite some optimism about its democracy the country (Nigeria) is yet to pass the Huntingtonian two turn-over test after two and half decades of civil rule. It is anything but not an indication of progress,” he contended.

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Samuel P. Huntington, a political scientist at Harvard University, in his article published in the Journal of Democracy and further expounded in his 1991 book: “The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century,” had identified three waves of democratisation spanning 1828-1926, 1922-1942, 1943-1962, 1958-1975 and 1974 to now.

A wave of democratisation, according to him, “is a group of transitions from non-democratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and significantly outnumbers transitions in the opposite direction during that period of time. A wave also usually involves liberalization or partial democratization in political systems that do not become fully democratic.”

Drawing an allusion from Ghana’s leap with democratic transition that has seen power changing hands in four election cycles between the two leading parties – National Democratic Congress and New People’s Party since 2000, Akhaine noted that Nigeria has only witnessed transfer of power from the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party to the opposition All Progressives Congress once in 2015.

He said: “The Ghanaian democracy has grown qualitatively while Nigeria’s democracy has only grown quantitatively and not qualitatively.”

Concerted attempts at institutional building were evident in Ghana “as there were some innovations and incremental improvements in the electoral process and brinkmanship. 

“For example, the Election Commission, the judiciary, and the election security task force demonstrated institutional strength through resilience, professionalism, and impartial adjudication of electoral matters. 

“The international community also helped to set up the Peace Council comprising religious and civic leaders that mediated election conflicts.”

Arguing that the Nigerian republic has continued to manifest the ills of the past, he attributed this to four major pathologies. 

He said: “One is the absence of free and fair elections. 

“Virtually all the elections since 1999 have been rigged in absolute disregard of the democratic method anchored on the principle of consent of the governed.

“It got so bad that the Commonwealth Observers reported that Nigeria went below the standard it set for itself in the 2007 election.

“The beneficiary of that election, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, admitted so and set up the Uwais Panel to reform the electoral process.

“Consubstantial to the absence of fair elections are the politically motivated killings that have blighted the political landscape. 

“The third term genie reared its head and was quickly smashed by the combined

forces of the political and civil society elite.

“Two, human rights violations have characterised every administration since 1999 exemplified by heinous violations such as Odi, Zaki Biam, and more recently Okuama massacres. 

“Boko Haram insurgency has created additional horrific human rights violations. Identity politics writ large in the polity. 

“Three, apart from periodic ethnic clashes among the various ethnic groups, ethnic identity as of old has continued to define voting patterns. 

“Four, the mismanagement of public funds has been unprecedented in Nigeria’s fourth republic. 

“In the Special Political Report on Nigeria, the Nigerian economy was described as one that was non-productive and rewarded indolence. 

“This perspective of the national economy has not changed. 

“The political elite constitutes its most hideous façade. 

“Politics has become the only game in town due to the opportunity it provides for the blatant looting of public resources.

“The bleeding of the national economy by public officials is aggravated by expenditure on public office holders and sundry appendages. 

“By some estimates, over 70 percent of national income is expended on recurrent expenditure to the detriment of capital expenditure. 

“In Nigeria, we speak painfully of stolen billions.”

Revealing that 27 countries in the African continent were ravaged by a total of 56 coup attempts between 2010 and 2024, Akhaine, a leading figure in the campaign that saw the end of military rule in Nigeria in late 90s, argued: “Insofar as we have a problem of poverty, intolerance, corruption and the consequent alienation of the people in the continent, coup d’état would remain a constant in the political equation of Africa and thus a permanent threat to democracy in the continent.”

“Democratic reversals in the form of coup d’état, or state-level militarism have bedevilled African countries under the third wave. 

“It is as endemic, and significant as to constitute a reverse wave within the third wave schema albeit momentarily. 

“In Africa, coups are driven by both internal and external factors. 

“The coups in Egypt, Zimbabwe, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger illustrate a mix of these factors. 

“Internal crises often arise from the economic contradictions of society. 

“The inability of democratic political regimes to resolve the economic problems rooted in the structure of production and then fulfil the welfare content of democracy has caused democratic reversals in the form of coup d’état.”

The inaugural lecture, which was presided over by the institution’s Vice Chancellor, Professor Ibiyemi Olatunji-Bello, who was represented by Deputy Vice Chancellor (Administration), Prof. Adenike Boyo, had in attendance other principal officials of the university. 

They included the Registrar, Emmanuel Fanu; Bursar, Said Olayinka; and Librarian, Dr. Omawumi Makinde.

Other prominent guests included former Osun State Governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola; former General Secretary, Afenifere, Yoruba socio-cultural group, Chief Ayo Opadokun; former Private Secretary to Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Odia Ofeimun; and former Arts Editor, The Guardian, Ben Tomoloju.

The capacity filled lecture, held at the Buba Marwa Hall at the university’s main campus in Ojo, Lagos also attracted other guests, colleagues, political elite, actors in civil society, and the media.

Akhaine, a former General Secretary of Campaign for Democracy, an organisation led by fiery Dr. Belo Ransome Kuti, which played a frontline role in ending military rule in the 90s, has over 100 works in prominent journals, monographs, books and other publications. 

A specialist in Comparative Politics, he’s a member of the editorial board of The Guardian and The Constitution, A Journal of Constitutional Development, published by the Centre for Constitutionalism and Demilitarization (CENCOD). 

He missed death by the whiskers shortly after his prolonged detention in the 90s when agents of the regime of General Sani Abacha pushed him off a moving truck.