The opposition and 2027 general election, by Kazeem Akintunde

“Ambition is the path to success. Persistence is the vehicle you arrive in.” 

The above quote is attributed to Bill Bradly, an American politician and former professional basketball player. Born July 28, 1948, he was offered 75 college scholarships due to his brilliance, but declined them all to attend Princeton University. He won a gold medal as a member of the 1964 Olympic basketball team and was the NCAA Player of the year in 1965. He served three terms as a Democratic US Senator from New Jersey., but ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic Party’s nomination for president in the 2000 election.

Back home, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has nursed the ambition of becoming the President of Nigeria since he left office as the Deputy to former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 2007. However, his lifelong ambition has been thwarted by several unsuccessful attempts. However, his persistence at electioneering has split the leading opposition political parties in the country, the People Democratic Party (PDP) into three groups, thereby weakening the party’s chances of returning to power come 2027. 

Atiku would be over 80 years old by 2027, but he has never hidden his desire to rerun for office. There are however several forces within the party that are ready to look him in the eye and say no to his political ambition this time around. Leading the opposition is the former governor of Rivers State and current FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike. Wike has never hidden his opposition to Atiku Abubakar’s presidential ambition as he, in 2023, led a group of G-5 Governors, all from the South, to reject Atiku’s ambition, thereby truncating his march towards the Aso Rock Presidential Villa.

That resistance is still very much in force till date, and there are speculations that Atiku may be on his way out of the PDP as he is already championing a broader coalition that will be used to kick President Bola Tinubu out of office. 

However, Ifeanyi Okowa, vice presidential candidate to Atiku in the 2023 presidential election, shocked most Nigerians when he decamped from the PDP to the ruling APC and also went ahead to state that Atiku was on his way out of the PDP. 

If the various power blocs in the PDP had managed their differences effectively, perhaps, they would have succeeded in kicking the APC out of power in 2023. But to realize his ambition, Peter Obi, Vice presidential candidate to Atiku in the 2019 presidential election, was forced out of the party when he realized that he would not be able to clinch the presidential ticket of the PDP. He pitched his political tent with the Labour Party. The offshoot of blind ambition. 

The duo of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi ran together in the 2019 elections against former President Muhammadu Buhari but lost out. In 2023, as separate candidates, their combined votes which totalled 12.8 million was higher than the 8.7 million garnered by Tinubu.

With less than two years to the next general elections, the PDP is currently rocked by one of its most debilitating crises since its establishment nearly 26 years ago. Virtually every party organ and caucus appears factionalised with visible proxy squabbles for the soul of the party. The internal discord is largely fuelled by a struggle to control the party’s structure ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. Now, there are three groups within the PDP, all working at cross purposes. There is the Wike/Seyi Makinde group, the Atiku-led group, and the Governor Bala Mohammed group within the same party.

Bauchi State Governor Bala Mohammed has never hidden his intention to run for the presidency. He lost the 2022 primary to Atiku and is believed to have the support of a sizable number of Governors. In recent months, he has openly challenged Wike while lending his support to Siminalayi Fubara, the suspended Governor of Rivers State. He has also called for the resignation of the acting national chairman, Umar Damagum, and seems to be pulling the strings behind the scenes. The ambition of these men is what has turned the PDP into a party without a soul. 

Peter Obi and the Labour Party created enough buzz in the last general elections with their party’s win in Lagos and the FCT amongst other states in the federation. His performance in Lagos, where Tinubu hails from, was seen as a political masterstroke. But two years down the line, the internal crisis within the party has not abated for a day. Presently, there are three powerful factions all claiming authentic leadership of the party. There is the Julius Abure-led group within the Labour Party, another faction is led by Lamidi Apapa, while Peter Obi seems to be in support of the caretaker committee, led by Nenadi Usman.

In spite of a Supreme Court ruling, the authentic leader of the party is still shrouded in mystery as the groups are interpreting the Apex Court ruling in their respective favour. Presently, there are moves by Obi and his Obidient movement to return to the PDP and possibly fly the presidential ticket of the party in the 2027 general elections. 

Obi recently visited Bala Mohammed in Bauchi, and during his visit, Mohammed had expressed his readiness to collaborate with him in forming a robust opposition to challenge what he described as “mediocres” parading as leaders. Mohammed emphasized the need for a strong opposition built on knowledge, vision, and a clear roadmap to recover Nigeria from those he believes are unfit to lead. He also reiterated that the time had come for action with integrity, sincerity, and focus. But will he drop his presidential ambition for Obi? 

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• The opposition and 2027 general election, by Kazeem Akintunde

Another opposition figure ahead of the 2027 general election is Nasir El-rufai, former Governor of Kaduna State and a prominent supporter of Tinubu in the build up to the 2023 general elections. Since he was denied a ministerial ticket by the combined forces of the Presidency, the DSS, and the leadership of the National Assembly after a petition was written against him, El-rufai seems to be on a revenge mission and has left the ruling party for the Social Democratic Party (SDP). While his supporters argue that his move to the SDP was based on principle, critics suggest it was driven by personal ambition, positioning himself for a possible political comeback in 2027. 

However, El-Rufai has on several occasions called for a coalition of opposition parties that could defeat Tinubu in 2027 and has been publicly seen with Atiku, while both of them seem to be working as one ahead of 2027. Few weeks after defecting to the SDP, he called on Obi and other political leaders to join him in an alliance to unseat the President in 2027. Again, El-Rufai is also nursing a presidential ambition and it remains to be seen if he will drop his ambition for Obi or Atiku since they all plan to coalesce their ambition into one big political basket. Recently, the PDP and other opposition parties accused the APC of fuelling crises within their ranks, and alleging that the ruling party is stifling the opposition to ensure President Tinubu’s continued rule in 2027. The APC has denied these claims.

Will Atiku who is championing a new coalition to get APC out of power float a new political party or hijack any of the registered political parties? Floating a new party about two years to the next election when the Tinubu government is consolidating on moves to revive the economy may spell doom for the opposition. The PDP, Labour Party, and the New Nigeria Peoples’ Party (NNPP) are separately confronted with internal feuds and gathering under one of them, particularly, the PDP, appears to be the slightest hope to offer Nigerians an alternative to the APC, which many have accused of plotting to institute a one-party state.

The outcomes of the 2023 presidential elections saw Tinubu polling 8,794,726 votes to beat Atiku Abubakar with 6,984,520 votes; Peter Obi, 6,101,533, and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s 1,496,687. This is without factoring the disgruntled five PDP governors, led by former Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike, who worked from within his party to scuttle the chances of Atiku over internal party crisis.

Cumulatively, the three presidential candidates who were all former members of the PDP polled a total of 14,582,740 votes in that election against Tinubu’s 8,794,726 votes. The rest could be imagined if they had gone into that election as a united force against the APC.

Giving Nigerians an alternative candidate on an alternative platform in 2027 will not just be for regime change, but to broaden the political space. It will also ensure a strong opposition that can withstand the ruling party with ideas and put it on its toes. If truly concerned about the course of governance, coming under the umbrella of the PDP to orchestrate a reform and institutionally rejig for a credible opposition role must occupy the minds of the opposing parties rather than for nursing selfish ambitions for juicy positions.

The defection of Okowa and the Governor of Delta State to the APC a few days ago was like a political tsunami that caught many people off-guard. 

It sends a strong signal to many that Nigerian politicians cannot be trusted, as most of them lack principles. Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori also decamped to the ruling APC, and there are speculations that many others are on their way. 

Presently, Tinubu is perceived as electorally vulnerable. He came to power with the slimmest electoral margin in the Fourth Republic, and in office, he has not done much to broaden his base or appeal except the recent defection of Sheriff and Okowa. His signature policies, necessary as they are, have translated into the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades for Nigerians, most of whom struggle to feed and meet other basic needs daily. He has alienated some of the key politicians who helped him to secure significant votes outside of his zone or who worked to take votes away from his opponents, and who, thus, swung the electoral calculus in his favour. His key appointments have been unabashedly sectional and his government is straining to escape the provincial tag. 

This combination of an afflicted populace and disaffected politicians suggests that if the presidential elections were to hold today, the incumbent president might struggle to hold on to more than the South West, his home base. However, he is concentrating on getting as much votes as possible from the South East and South South whilst hoping that the shared northern votes with whomsoever the zone presents as its candidate in 2027. 

But the ambition of the three leading opposition figures may once again pave the way for another victory for Tinubu come 2027. 

See you next week.