For many exciting reasons and intriguing factors, today’s Presidential poll in Nigeria is like never before! Interestingly, this time, to a large extent, there is no usual anxiety, concerns about bloodbath and many other frightening feelings and phobia that have over the years characterized the country’s general elections and voting exercise.
Instead, what we have now is a display of enthusiasm, eagerness, joy, readiness and high expectations by the eligible registered voters who have impressively collected their Permanent Voter Cards PVCs to exercise their civic responsibility – vote candidates of their choice in this general elections, particularly, the presidential, which holds across the 36 States of Federation and FCT, Abuja.
The system that allows this peaceful atmosphere to happen must be commended. Equally deserved to be hailed are the mass media and the civil society groups . Kudos to them, for the persistent election education advocacy, sensitisation and mobilization. The efforts have been really worthwhile and not a waste of time, energy and resources afterall.
In all, there are 18 registered political parties in Nigeria. However, about 14 of them fielded presidential candidates. Still, out of the 14, today’s election revolves around four ‘major’ contenders, including the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu; the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) flagbearer, Turaki Adamawa, Atiku Abubakar; the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party, (NNPP) standard bearers, Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso respectively. In actual sense, truth be told, the real contest is between the candidates of APC and PDP.
Starting from the “Kwakwasiya” political slogan originator, Kwankwaso. Today’s election promises to be exciting, seeing the former Kano State Governor competing with votes with the candidates of APC, the ruling party in the North Western State, as well as their counterpart in the opposition PDP. And in the end, it will be more interesting to know how much of votes Kwankwaso could muster from over 30 local government areas of the State he once governed and held sway. Indeed, the Kano result will be a litimus test for Kwankwaso’s political relevance and how much of of influence and grip does still he have on the core Northern State.
Away from Kano, Kwankwaso boasted while the campaign lasted that his party NNPP has a formidable structure across the States – which can work for and achieve desired victory for the party and its presidential candidate. Right! We see how this goes!
Obi of LP no doubt, is the underdog in the presidential bid. Still, he is giving impression that ‘impossibility will become possibility’! Of course, the candidate had endeared himself and won the hearts of not a few youths, professionals, students across the length and breadth of the country. Another plus for him is that his supporters dominate social media space. No wonder, some have mocked that the former Anambra State Governor would be the President of Federal Republic of Nigeria on internet – social media.
Another factor working in favour of Obi is ethnicity and religion. Following the power play before, during and after the presidential primaries of the frontline political parties – the APC and PDP, some interests across the religion and ethnic divide were disappointed and embittered. The ‘interests’ seemed to have identified each other; therefore, have since come and been working together for Obi. They care less whether their choice candidate has the deserving political structure and enough of the traditional political foot soldiers, let alone a single Governor or enough of National Assembly or State House of Assembly Lawmakers that would canvass and mobilize votes for him at the grassroot level.
Obi’s supporters are resolute, determined and very hopeful that with or without the key political machineries, the LP party would earn 25 per cent of vote in 2/3 of the 36 States. Fine! But this alone is not enough! The Obi-Datti (Obedient) ticket supporters must face the reality that the second leg (standard) for a candidate to be declared the winner is that he or she must poll the highest number of valid vote cast during the exercise! There’s no two ways to this and there is no miracle that will happen!
Still, it will be interesting to see how far Obi will go – especially the amount of vote that will come his way. And that would be a reference point or a topic for political academic research, with respect to the influence of political parties, supporters and candidates’ personality on electoral victory.
Now the veteran, Turaki Adamawa, Atiku of PDP. He is a known brand in Nigerian politics and presidential contest. However, it’s very difficult to make a blanket declaration that he is the most favoured of all to win the decisive poll. This is for obvious reasons. Before the PDP Presidential primary, some powers within the opposition party insisted that power must be shifted to the south. The Atiku’s camp would not listen to this sentiment. This dragged, up until he emerged the winner of the controversial primary. Atiku’s emergence and some other internal unresolved squabbles resulted to emergence of the G-5 Governors, being led by the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike.
It’s worrisome, yet, interesting seeing the five Governors: Nyesom Wike (Rivers); Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia); Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu); Seyi Makinde (Oyo) and Sam Ortom ( Benue) States avoiding Atiku like a leprous and distancing themselves from his campaign train. Wike, the leader of the group went many steps further, by allegedly frustrating the PDP Presidential Campaign Council PCC from holding its rally. He ended up taunting the party leaders in Rivers State who are not on his side, challenging them that if they have the clout, they could have without him organized a successful rally for Atiku in the South South State.
As if that was not enough, the guttural voice Governor threatened openly that any of the Rivers State Local Government Area Chairmen who failed to deliver his LGA for the APC presidential candidate would be sanctioned. He also demonstrated his total support for Tinubu by hosting him in his Port Harcourt, the capital city private residence after the APC rally last week or week before.
With five Governors not on his side; the core north as a battle ground between him and APC candidate and not sure of good showing in the middle belt States – who are Obedient followers and almost nil hope in the South West, where is Atiku winning vote would be coming from? The outcome in the remaining South South States, except Delta, home State of his running mate, Ifeanyi Okowa are also not predictable. In fact, there is a permutation that with many factors working against Atiku, today’s contest might largely be between Tinubu and Obi! What a calculation! Indeed, it will be interesting to see how Atiku survives the prevalent odds against him and compete effectively with his main contender, Tinubu.
Tinubu – the unarguably super and master political strategist, obviously have many factors working for him. Still, it will be interesting to watch and see how some factors might probably scuttle his chances. After the ruling APC survived the crisis of its Presidential primary, which could have rocked the boat, the next controversy was the Muslim – Muslim ticket. Then, lately are the challenges of fuel scarcity and the CBN new monetary policy.
It’s almost unheard of to see a ruling party winning an election, especially when it introduces unpopular policy, during elections time! Although, it is alleged that both fuel scarcity and the so called cashless policy was a deliberate plots by the cabals in government, working with the opposition and using the CBN Governor as the willing tool, majorly and specifically to turn the ruling party and its presidential candidate against the Nigerians, for them (opposition) to come up and project themselves as veritable alternatives!
However, as issues stand today, the alleged plot seems to have failed! The alleged target has since berated the long fuel queue at the filling stations, as well plan to further hike pump price of petrol. Not only this, he has also expressed his opposition to the controversial monetary policy that has brought hardships to all Nigerians, especially on its timing and manner of implementation.
Fortunately for the former Lagos State Governor, to a large extent, he has ironically gotten the public sympathy, hence, they believed, followed him and many have resolved to vote him as the next President! In fact, the language on the social media, even from the Northern part of the country is: “Akoi kudi, ba kudi, Tinubu dole ni” (With or without money, voting for Tinubu is an obligation).
Giving these facts, it will be exciting to see how Tinubu will slug it out and defeat his main rival, Atiku. Another interesting factor is that in case Tinubu wins, with what margin? Don’t forget, many have speculated a run-off poll, in case the two frontliners tight. Indeed, the outcome of today’s poll will be interesting due to many of its unique dynamics.
Therefore, we wait and see how all the intrigues will play out when 87,209,007 (93.3%) of the 93,469,008 registered voters hopefully troop out from over 8,813 wards, out of 774 local government areas of the 36 States and FCT to 119,974, polling units and 56,872 voting points, to cast their votes for the candidates of their choice.
Surely, Nigerians and the entire world can’t wait to see the final result of this presidential election, which is very peculiar and like never before!
Balogun is the Deputy Editor, The Eagleonline Newspaper. E-mail: tjaysuccess10@gmail.com; Twitter: tjaysuccess10@gmail.com.
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