NiMet achieved 80% accuracy in 2018 predictions – DG

The Director-General, Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Prof. Sani Mashi, has disclosed that the 2018 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction of the agency, recorded an average of 80 per cent accuracy.
Mashi stated this at the public presentation of the agency’s 2019 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction with the theme, “Be Weather Ready, Be Climate Smart’’, on Thursday in Abuja.
He said that the prediction was based on the feedback from its users.
He disclosed that the level of accuracy of NiMet’s predictions for 2018 varied from 86 per cent for amount of rainfall to 85 per cent for the length of growing season and 91 per cent for onset and cessation.
According to the director-general, higher amount of rainfall was received within a short period in most part of the country in 2018 which led to flooding in some places in line with NiMet’s prediction.
He said: “Accuracy varies between 86 per cent for the amount of rainfall, 85 for the length of growing seasoning and then to 91 for the onset cessation of the rains.
“If you check on the general average, the accuracy is over 80 per cent.
“Last year we said higher amount of the rainfall was going to be received within shorter period of time in most part.
“It means that much amount of rain would be received at a time, which means that the capacity of land to retain water will be over-stretched, leading to flooding.
“We predicted that even in places where you have lower amount of rain, we were still going to expect flooding and we have evidences to show that flooding was recorded in different parts of the country.
“No fewer than one million people were affected.’’
Mashi said that the 2019 SRP was significant, explaining that it was so because of the unpleasant behaviour of climate in the country.
He said that the onset of the rain was going to be delayed, adding that rains would start in the northern part of the country towards the end of June, and in March, in the southern part.
According to Mashi, the temperatures are generally going to be higher in most parts of the country, because we have been observing increasing threat of warmness within the country.
He warned against food shortage arising from poor harvest as a result of lower than normal rainy season and expected dry spell during the year.
Mashi, however, said that efforts were being made to meet with states and local governments to reach farmers at the grassroots and inform them of the impending weather situation.