Given Ogun State’s strategic position as the home of three former presidents, two former Vice-Presidents, a Nobel Laureate and other iconic individuals, institutions and natural phenomenons, her politics has always been one of the barometers for measuring the state of the nation. Her politics has always been tumultuous especially since the advent of the fourth republic. 2027 promises to be as tumultuous as ever or even more earthshaking for several reasons.
THE SENATE
In Ogun West, the Senatorial race is open with the incumbent, Senator Adeola Yayi, focusing on the gubernatorial race. A school of thought has mentioned the current deputy governor, Her Excellency, Noimot Salako-Oyedele as an ideal candidate to replace the man known as YAYI. On the Ogun Central’s senatorial seat, His Excellency Ibikunle Amosun(SIA) is being rumored to be interested in this seat in 2027. That will make it a “Fight to Finish” between him and the incumbent, Senator Salisu Afolabi. Senator Afolabi is said to be a loyalist of Governor Dapo Abiodun(DA), while other reports indicate that the relationship between the duo might not be as good as it used to be. Another school of thought believes that Governor Dapo Abiodun might concede the Senatorial seat to SIA in exchange for his support for his gubernatorial candidate. The same school of thought believes that Governor Abiodun and SIA have too much business interest between them not to work together in 2027.
In Ogun East, it promises to be battle royal as Governor Dapo Abiodun(DA) is said to be hell bent on upstaging the incumbent, Ex-Governor Otunba Gbenga Daniel either for himself or one of his nominees. It will be recalled that Otunba Gbenga Daniel was one of the cornerstones of Gov. Abiodun’s success in 2019. The story today is that both of them no longer see eye to eye with Gov. Dapo Abiodun having been said to have moved against several of Otunba Gbenga Daniel’s political and business interests in Ogun State either directly or through his protégés and appointees. Another school of thought however believes that there is no “NEVER” in politics and that Gov. Dapo Abiodun might also concede the Ogun East Senatorial seat to Otunba Gbenga Daniel in exchange for support for his candidate in the gubernatorial race.
THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
It is believed that most of the seats for the House of Representatives will be used as pawns in the high-wired political game of 2027. Most of the incumbents might not return except they work very hard.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACE
This is usually the big fish in state elections. The big prize that all gladiators are after. Speaking about Gladiators, Ogun State has several CLASS A gladiators led by the Grandmaster himself, General Olusegun Obasanjo (Rtd), the two-term President and self-appointed WATCHMAN of Nigeria. General Obasanjo is known to be involved in all major decisions in politics in Nigeria. He leads a team of class A Gladiators including Chief Segun Osoba(Osoba), Otunba Gbenga Daniel(OGD), Senator Ibikunle Amosun(SIA) and Gov. Dapo Abiodun(DA) among others. OBJ’s disposition to, and interest in Ogun State 2027 is unclear as at now. However, his body language and usually earth shaking declarations can alter the state’s political landscape fundamentally.
The President Bola Ahmed Tinubu Factor
President Bola Tinubu as the sitting president of Nigeria and Leader of APC is expected take a more than casual position in OGUN 2027 politics for the following reasons among others.
1. President Bola Tinubu was said to have coordinated the coalition that ensured that Gov. Dapo Abiodun did not only emerge as the gubernatorial candidate of APC in 2019, he also convinced Otunba Gbenga Daniel who was in PDP then to be a part of the support platform for Gov Abiodun at the main election thereby ensuring that Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Osoba, Senator Yayi and others in APC all worked for Gov. Dapo Abiodun against Senator Ibikunle Amosun’s Abiodun Akinlade and Hon Ladi Adebutu of PDP. Thus, he has a vested interest.
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2. While President Tinubu’s associates seem to be close to Gov Dapo Abiodun, the rumour is that the President wants to be carried along in the choice of the candidate for the gubernatorial race for all states in the South West in particular, and the country in general.
3. The President is said to hold Ogun State’s ancient cities of Abeokuta and Ijebu-Ode close to his chest. This was probably the reason for his delivery of the two most pivotal, spiritual and probably divinely inspired speeches at Abeokuta while his visit to Ijebu-ode’s Awujale shortly after his election was said to be a demonstration of his love for, and awe of, Ogun State.
4. It is rumoured that as 2027 gets closer, BAT might reconnect more solidly with one of Ogun State’s gladiators with huge political network across the country in both APC and PDP. This is none other than Otunba Gbenga Daniel. Sources close to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu suggest that Otunba Gbenga Daniel might be drafted to play a major role in the coming elections and the President might want to calm nerves in the state to ensure that all gladiators work together to deliver the Presidency and the State for APC in 2027.
THE YAYI FACTOR
The president is said to be in support of Yayi’s ambition which from the body language of Gov Dapo Abiodun, conflicts with Gov Dapo Abiodun’s interest. It is said that the President had actually directed YAYI to make his political structure available for Gov Dapo Abiodun in 2019 while most credit YAYI for Gov Dapo Abiodun’s win in 2023. It is being rumoured that the President is not happy with Gov Dapo Abiodun’s body language on Yayi and he might step in very soon to calm things down.
THE WALE EDUN FACTOR
While rumours are flying around that the President is interested in supporting the Honourable Minister of Finance for the gubernatorial position, other schools of thought point out that this is not only false, but even Mr. Wale Edun is not interested. Notwithstanding, all eyes are on Wale Edun and it is believed that no rumour is without some basis.
WHO IS DAPO ABIODUN’S CANDIDATE?
This is the question on all lips as far as Ogun State is concerned. While many including Mr. Jimi Lawal, Otunba Seyi Oduntan, Senator Lekan Mustapha, Hon Wale Edun, Hon Gboyega Isiaka (GNI), HE Noimot Salako-Oyedele and Ambassador Sharafa Ishola among others are all being rumoured to be Gov Dapo Abiodun’s potential candidate, no one is sure and DA’s inscrutable countenance is not giving anything away.
Watch out for Part 2 of this series.
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