Gabriel Akinadewo
Only God can predict the ways of politicians. They are as unpredictable as the mood of a mad and violent fellow. They are cocky and not straightforward. If a politician tells you he is on his way to Mile 2, start running to Mile 12 because that is where you will find him. And he will justify his change of mind with the popular coinage: ‘Mile 12 people have forced me to join the race’ – presidential, governorship, senatorial etc.
Even when defeat is glaring, a Nigerian politician will never believe that he or she will lose a contest. In the mad pursuit for power, the average Nigerian politician can dine with the devil. And if he or she eventually loses, thugs will be sent after the devil to deal with the evil one.
Politicians may come together for a particular partisan action but one thing is clear: forgiveness is never part of their game. Once you have wronged your fellow, he will do everything to ensure that he brings you down.
To grab power, Nigerian politicians can change parties four times in one year.
Just to continue to be in the limelight, an aspirant can cross from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Labour Party (LP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and back to the PDP in the elusive search for a ticket.
Today is the national convention of the PDP at the Eagle Square, Abuja where officers will be elected or selected. Whether we like it or not, the result of today’s partisan exercise will shape the 2015 general elections because PDP will still dictate the direction the country will go in the next three years. So, whoever emerges today as the PDP National Chairman will play a critical role in the imposition of candidates for the 2015 elections.
For obvious reasons, former President Olusegun Obasanjo and his deputy, Atiku Abubakar, are playing prominent roles in today’s exercise.
Obasanjo will be prominent today because of his office as the Chairman of the Board of Trustees (BoT) of the PDP and Atiku because of his 2015 ambition.
Whoever believes that Obasanjo and Atiku will ever come together publicly and behave like new-found lovers.
When Obasanjo celebrated his 75th birthday on March 5 (some mischievous Nigerians strongly believe that Baba Iyabo is more than 80 years), Atiku was the surprise guest.
He not only came with a huge entourage, his wife, Titi, an influential Yoruba woman, also followed him to the venue at the Civic Centre, Victoria Island, Lagos.
Titi Abubakar knows how Obasanjo dealt with her husband between 2005 and 2007, so only God knows what was going through her mind when Atiku introduced her to Obasanjo’s wife, Bola.
Atiku added a comedy to the whole scenario when he described Obasanjo as the only boss he had “and both of us will continue to work closely for the good of the nation”.
What is responsible for the new love between Obasanjo and Atiku?
At the height of Obasanjo’s tenure elongation plan in 2006, Atiku led some governors to a Governor’s Lodge in Abuja to campaign openly against his boss.
There was nothing Atiku didn’t say about his boss, that if not because of him, Obasanjo would not have become President in 1999, that Obasanjo was trying to bite the fingers that fed him.
The country was made almost ungovernable with Obasanjo ordering Atiku out of a Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting in Abuja. As one of Obasanjo’s foot soldiers against Atiku, the then Aviation Minister, Chief Femi Fani-Kayode, justified the action after the meeting.
Atiku was forced to join the then Action Congress (AC), now Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), and became the presidential candidate in December, 2006.
Naturally, Obasanjo did everything to frustrate Atiku out of the government but the Turaki Adamawa stubbornly refused.
During the deadly power game, they did not spare any weapon to unleash terror on the ambition of each other.
Obasanjo wanted to continue in Aso Rock. Atiku wanted to wrest power from his boss. Both eventually failed in their ambitions.
Atiku lost the election to Obasanjo’s anointed candidate, the late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in April 2007 and the duo never saw eye to eye again until a meeting organised in Obasanjo’s Abeokuta residence by former Osun State governor, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola in January, 2009. I wrote a piece then on that meeting entitled: “Witches of Abeokuta”.
Like a vulture that will patiently wait to feast on a carcass, Atiku, again, started oiling his political machinery for the 2011 election. He was eventually made the consensus candidate of the North.
Deriding Atiku, Obasanjo said in Aso Rock: I dey laugh o.
Atiku eventually lost the PDP ticket to President Goodluck Jonathan.
On November 28, last year, both continued the hostility when Atiku told Obasanjo to defend himself against the allegation of lobbying former United States (U.S.) President, George Bush, to support his third term ambition in 2006 which was contained in the published memoirs of former Secretary of State, Condolezza Rice.
A few days before Atiku’s outburst, Obasanjo said Atiku destroyed his chance of succeeding him in 2007. He said his former deputy was unreliable, lacks vision, orientation and experience to be elected Nigeria’s president.
There were no derogatory remarks that Obasanjo did not use to describe Atiku but trust the former Vice President. He replied Obasanjo with full measure, saying the allegations were diversionary and “a distortion of truth by Obasanjo who is supposed to speak honestly like a statesman”.
On page 638 of her memoir entitled: ‘No Higher Honour’, Rice revealed: “In 2006 when President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria sidled up to President Bush and suggested that he (Obasanjo) might change the Constitution so that he could serve a third term, President Bush told him not to do it.
“In Bush’s words: ‘You have served your country well. Now turn over power and become a statesman’”.
Atiku wondered why Obasanjo did not react to the allegations by Rice instead of attacking him, saying his opposition to Obasanjo’s tenure elongation plot was the beginning of his travails.
He said: “Obasanjo had no succession plan from day one. He wanted to be Nigeria’s Robert Mugabe. He also handed over power to Umaru Musa Yar’Adua reluctantly as a face-saving measure following the collapse of his third term ambition.
“I opposed tenure elongation of Obasanjo on the grounds that the Constitution should not be amended for the sake of granting one man’s life term ambition rather than public interest.
“Obasanjo sent two senior cabinet ministers to me to deliberate on a draft Constitution. Curiously, the draft was silent on term limit which made me to smell a rat and my courage to confront him over this controversial plan was the beginning of my troubles with him and the subsequent plots to frustrate my ambition to become President”.
He also accused Obasanjo of sponsoring a medically-challenged Yar’Adua to succeed him in 2007 as a means of punishing Nigerians for rejecting his life-presidency ambition.
On the allegations of inexperience, incompetence and unreliability made against him by Obasanjo, Atiku said “Obasanjo is the last person to lecture any Nigerian on reliability”.
Atiku also dismissed as absurd the allegation against him by Obasanjo that he is inexperienced, challenging Obasanjo to disclose any responsibility or task that he assigned to him while in office, which he didn’t discharge competently.
He accused Obasanjo of being obsessed with the myth of indispensability and the false notion of being the cleanest person.
Although it was not clear then, the general belief was that the altercation between the duo was because of 2015. Obasanjo believes that Atiku still has an interest to become the Commander-in-Chief due to the notion that Jonathan will only spend one term in office.
It is also believed that Atiku worked for the re-election of Governor Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State on February 4 for him to get home support when the 2015 race starts.
To stoop to conquer, Atiku believes that an endless fight with Obasanjo will not take him anywhere.
Nyako is very close to Obasanjo. In fact, Obasanjo is his godfather who ensured that he got the PDP ticket and was elected as Adamawa governor in 2007.
Because of the general belief that Obasanjo is Jonathan’s godfather, Atiku is also of the view that he needs Obasanjo’s support to ge
t Jonathan’s full backing in 2015. so, his new strategy is to cease fire and embrace Obasanjo.
But, will Jonathan leave Aso Rock in 2015?
The founder of India, Mahatma Gandhi, said on June 22, 1940 after Adolf Hitler’s victories resulting in the occupation of France.
“Whatever Hitler may ultimately prove to be, we know what Hitlerism has come to mean, It means naked, ruthless force reduced to an exact science and worked with scientific precision. In its effect, it becomes almost irresistible. Hitlerism will never be defeated by counter-Hitlerism. It can only breed superior Hitlerism raised to ninth degree. What is going on before our eyes is the demonstration of the futility of violence as also of Hitlerism. What will Hitler do with his victory? Can he digest so much power? Personally, he will go as empty-handed as his not very remote predecessor, Alexander. For the Germans, he will have left not the pleasure of owning a mighty empire but the burden of sustaining its crushing weight. For they will not be able to hold all the conquered nations in perpetual subjection. And I doubt if the Germans of future generations will entertain unadulterated pride in the deeds for which Hitlerism will be deemed responsible. They will honour Herr Hitler as genius, as a brave man, a matchless organiser and much more. But, I should hope that the Germans of the future will have learnt the art of discrimination, even about their heroes. Anyway, I think it will be allowed that all the blood that has been spilled by Hitler has added not a millionth part of an inch to the world’s moral stature.
I am sure Atiku wants to practicalise Gandhi’s doctrine: Hitlerism will never be defeated by counter-Hitlerism.
His new approach to getting the presidency is not to defeat ‘Obasanjoism with counter-Obasanjoism’. Like an experienced coach, he wants to change tactics to defeat Obasanjo in this political game and grab the Aso Rock trophy.
That was why he described Obasanjo as “the only boss I have”, thinking that Obasanjo will support him in 2015.
According to Gandhi’s prediction, Hitler was eventually defeated. The Fuhrer became history in 1945. Atiku is also eyeing 2015. Isn’t it curious that both years – 1945 and 2015 – end with figure 5?
What Atiku needs to know is that Obasanjo will never support his ambition to become Nigeria’s President.
Obasanjo knows what he did to Atiku while both were in Aso Rock and he will never allow anybody, not even Atiku, do that to him because he is out of government and power now.
Even if Atiku swears with the Holy Bible, Quran, Ogun, the god of iron, Sango, the god of thunder, Sonponna, Ayelala, Obatala and other gods, psychologically, Obasanjo cannot bring himself to bear it that somebody he did everything to stop from succeeding him will one day decide his fate as Nigeria’s most-powerful man.
My political instinct, which has never failed, is telling me that Obasanjo is waiting for the appropriate time to throw another bombshell on Atiku and thwart his 2015 ambition.
With the way we play our politics in this part of the world, there is no way Obasanjo and Atiku will not fight again.
And Obasanjo, the Ebora Owu, the Father and Mother of Modern Nigeria, the Life Patron of the PDP, the Conqueror of all PDP members, the Eze Yoruba Gburugburu, the Aare Ona Kakanfo of Yoruba politics and the Uncrowned Leader of a faction of Ogun State PDP, will definitely start the fight.