As at the time you will be reading this piece, it is my uttermost desire that the Chibok Girls abducted six months ago by the violent Boko Haram sect would have been freed up. The hope for their release was brought alive on October 17, 2014 when the Federal Government, through the Nigerian military, said that it had agreed to a ceasefire deal with the ferocious sect and that the Chibok girls would be released soon. The deal was announced by the Chief of Defence Staff, Air Marshal Alex Badeh.
As the 2015 general election is underway, the two major political parties are warming up, the political system is heating up and the parties are doing all they can to secure victory.
While we’re already sure of the presidential candidate of the ruling political party, the Peoples Democratic Party, which is President Goodluck Jonathan, four aspirants – General Muhammadu Buhari, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano State Sam Isaiah-Nda, who publishes Leadership newspapers – have all shown interest in the presidential ticket of the major opposition party, the All Progressives Congress.
On September 24, 2014, the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar officially declared his interest to be the 2015 presidential election flag bearer of the APC, while on October 15, 2014 at the Eagle Square, Abuja a former military ruler, General Muhammadu Buhari, officially declared his interest for the same position. The Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and Isaiah-Nda are yet to officially declare their interests for the prestigious position.
From all indications, General Muhammadu Buhari may likely be the APC candidate to run against President Goodluck Jonathan.
After General Muhammadu Buhari openly declared his 2015 presidential ambition in Abuja, an online opinion poll ran by an independent third-party service called POLL, conducted a survey. The survey asked: ‘If the 2015 Nigerian presidential election were held today, with President Goodluck Jonathan as the PDP candidate and General Muhammadu Buhari as the APC candidate, who would win?’
The survey which lasted for 24 hours had 14,314 voters. The result of the survey showed overwhelming support for Buhari, who won the poll with a rating as high as 78 per cent.
However, the fact is: in the Nigeria of today, majority of those that participate in polls are the few educated elites of the society, most of who do not participate in real elections.
General Muhammadu Buhari may have won the Poll, but that is not an assurance that he will win the presidential election come 2015.
The 2015 general election will not be about political parties alone but about their candidates and propaganda will be a powerful tool that would be employed by any of the parties that’s really desperate for victory.
Though a lot of Nigerians may be interested in the change of governance and may want to see a transition of power but that does not imply that they will vote for a candidate that has been widely tagged as a religious fanatic.
General Buhari has been recognized as being honest and incorruptible, disciplined and principled, with his modest lifestyle acknowledged even by his opponents. With these qualities, he is well suitable for the prestigious position of the country.
But on the other hand, he has also been widely criticized as being a pro-North than a pro-Nigeria and also as a religious bigot. Those alone could stand against him in a country that is so polarized along religious and regional lines.
He must therefore not be carried away by the results of the Poll, but rather concentrate on how to get the voters to change the false notion they have about him.
In this case, it is also important to remember that it was the same Poll that rated the ex- Governor of Ekiti State, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, above the incumbent, Ayodele Fayose, as the preferred candidate for the Ekiti State Government House by majority of registered voters in the state. The poll was conducted in May 2014 by one of the leading Nigerian research company, Brand Survey Limited.
But unfortunately for him, the result was widely different when the election was conducted. Governor Peter Ayodele Fayose defeated him to be the winner of the Ekiti State gubernatorial election.
It was the same Poll that rated Mallam Nuhu Ribadu approximately 90 per cent higher over President Goodluck Jonathan and General Buhari in 2011. However, the result was not the same when the election was conducted in April 2011. In fact, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu didn’t even come second . He was last among the three candidates he was rated alongside.
Saying that General Buhari won’t pose a big threat to President Goodluck Jonathan in the forthcoming presidential election is far from the truth, but relying on the results from the Poll will do him more harm than good.
Buhari must, therefore, get his campaign strategies right. And top on the list must be convincing the people that he’s not a religious fanatic. Especially the people at the grassroots – those market men and women, those religious minded people that still carry the notion as cooked to them by his enemy.
If possible, he should try attending the forthcoming Christian religious gatherings like the Holy Ghost Congress 2014, Shiloh 2014, Pray your way to 2015, and others. He could also visit the Synagogue, Read up Rhapsody of Realities and the likes and most importantly meet up Christian religious leaders. These will go a long way to convince those that still believe he is an Islamic religious bigot that he’s not. Remember Governor Rauf Aregbesola of Osun State applied a similar strategy when faced with the same criticism.
It would be better, if his case is like that of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli politician and Prime Minister of Israel, who always loses the elections during the polls, but wins it on election days.
And until he is declared the winner of the 2015 presidential election, Buhari should not mind the Polls he has not yet arrived!
God Bless Nigeria!
You can follow Ogundana Michael Rotimi on Twitter: @MickeySunny.